AEK vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 67¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 4

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$91.48

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 67¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares18,112

Combined PnL+$102.9

Over2 traders

Total Value$258.87

Total Shares809

Combined PnL-$11.42

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 67.2¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$11.51	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 65.7¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$53.9	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 65.7¢	$4.2K	$2.7K	+$32.43	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 66¢	$615.43	$624.33	+$8.9	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
0xheavy888	Underavg 65.8¢	$388.75	$395.7	+$6.95	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 66¢	$263.98	$267.98	+$4	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 35.1¢	$247.08	$225.12	-$21.96	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 32.1¢	$161.71	$170.73	+$9.02	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.1¢	$117.3	$117.08	-$0.22
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.5¢	$44.41	$53.65	+$9.24
38 38791873984189	Underavg 63¢	$117.81	$125.29	+$7.48	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Underavg 66¢	$51.06	$51.84	+$0.77	64% 1892-1053 (2945)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 68.1¢	$44.95	$44.22	-$0.73	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$23.2	$33.75	+$10.55	57% 12279-9333 (21612)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 65.3¢	$16.32	$16.74	+$0.42	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 65¢	$5.29	$5.46	+$0.16	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 64¢	$2.5	$2.61	+$0.12	55% 1307-1089 (2396)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$4,959.08

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$11.51

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,175.86

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$53.9

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$4,203.79

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$32.43

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$615.43

Value

$624.33

PnL

+$8.9

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$388.75

Value

$395.7

PnL

+$6.95

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$263.98

Value

$267.98

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$247.08

Value

$225.12

PnL

-$21.96

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$161.71

Value

$170.73

PnL

+$9.02

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

Both legs:

Over$117.332.1¢-$0.22

Under$44.4155.5¢+$9.24

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$117.81

Value

$125.29

PnL

+$7.48

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

darkumbreon88<$100

Under

Invested

$51.06

Value

$51.84

PnL

+$0.77

Record

64%

1892-1053 (2945)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$44.95

Value

$44.22

PnL

-$0.73

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.2

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$10.55

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$16.32

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$5.29

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

1307-1089 (2396)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.