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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

AEK vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5

Resolved Over. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Under 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$-11.7K

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%
Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares18,112
Combined PnL$-12.3K
Over2 traders
Total Value$808.97
Total Shares809
Combined PnL+$538.68
Under — 86%Over — 14%
FL
FlaznorpCTR
Under

Invested

$4,959.08

Value

—

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

GO
GoalLineGhostCTR
Under

Invested

$3,175.86

Value

—

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

VeryLucky888CTR
Under

Invested

$4,203.79

Value

—

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

SN
SnakeBallCTR
Under

Invested

$615.43

Value

—

PnL

-$615.43

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

0xheavy888CTR
Under

Invested

$388.75

Value

—

PnL

-$388.75

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

0X
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR
Under

Invested

$263.98

Value

—

PnL

-$263.98

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

MA
MadridTime
Over

Invested

$247.08

Value

$703.5

PnL

+$456.42

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

TO
topdogbigboiARB<$100
Over

Invested

$161.71

Value

$365.88

PnL

+$204.17

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

Both legs:

Over$117.332.1¢+$248.58
Under$44.4155.5¢-$44.41
38
38791873984189CTR
Under

Invested

$117.81

Value

—

PnL

-$117.81

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

DA
darkumbreon88CTR<$100
Under

Invested

$51.06

Value

—

PnL

-$51.06

Record

64%

1892-1053 (2945)

HRTradingCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$44.95

Value

—

PnL

-$44.95

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

poshposh
Over

Invested

$23.2

Value

$105.47

PnL

+$82.27

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

GH
ghorrockCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$16.32

Value

—

PnL

-$16.32

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

SE
sentrioCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$5.29

Value

—

PnL

-$5.29

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

LO
lonmi2511CTR<$100
Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

55%

1307-1089 (2396)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x8d762a9a...51db5f
Slug
ucl-aek1-rma-2026-11-04-total-4pt5

Traders in this Market

FL

Flaznorp

CTR

Under — $0

$-5.0K
GO

GoalLineGhost

CTR

Under — $0

$-3.2K

VeryLucky888

CTR

Under — $0

$-2.6K
SN

SnakeBall

CTR

Under — $0

-$615.43

0xheavy888

CTR

Under — $0

-$388.75
0X

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

CTR

Under — $0

-$263.98
MA

MadridTime

Over — $703.5

+$456.42
TO

topdogbigboi

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$204.17
38

38791873984189

CTR

Under — $0

-$117.81
DA

darkumbreon88

CTR

Under — $0

-$51.06
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