Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (76%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AEK vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 25¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Over76¢Under24¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$30.5

Smart Money Entry

24.1¢ → 24.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares7,218

Combined PnL+$30.69

Over3 traders

Total Value$73.05

Total Shares98

Combined PnL-$0.19

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 24.1¢	$610.15	$620.44	+$10.29	51% 23471-22229 (45700)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 24¢	$549.85	$561.14	+$11.29	53% 16406-14573 (30979)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 24¢	$438.5	$447.57	+$9.07	50% 27376-27294 (54670)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$76.92	$78.52	+$1.6	50% 25280-24984 (50264)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 75.3¢	$41.37	$40.66	-$0.71	67% 53-26 (79)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$78.74	$33.66	+$0.17	58% 44724-32558 (77282)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 74¢	$27.14	$27.69	+$0.55	64% 1854-1031 (2885)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$26.78	$25.29	-$1.48	53% 951-831 (1782)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$5.06	$4.78	-$0.28	53% 961-861 (1822)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Overavg 75¢	$4.77	$4.71	-$0.03	92% 3024-259 (3283)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.23	+$0.03	55% 1277-1064 (2341)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$0.32	$0.32	+$0	58% 18645-13742 (32387)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$610.15

Value

$620.44

PnL

+$10.29

Record

51%

23471-22229 (45700)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$549.85

Value

$561.14

PnL

+$11.29

Record

53%

16406-14573 (30979)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$438.5

Value

$447.57

PnL

+$9.07

Record

50%

27376-27294 (54670)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.92

Value

$78.52

PnL

+$1.6

Record

50%

25280-24984 (50264)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$41.37

Value

$40.66

PnL

-$0.71

Record

67%

53-26 (79)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.74

Value

$33.66

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

44724-32558 (77282)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$27.14

Value

$27.69

PnL

+$0.55

Record

64%

1854-1031 (2885)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.78

Value

$25.29

PnL

-$1.48

Record

53%

951-831 (1782)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.06

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

961-861 (1822)

thatsabing0<$100

Over

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$0.03

Record

92%

3024-259 (3283)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

1277-1064 (2341)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

18645-13742 (32387)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.