AEK vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 3.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 66¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$3.6K
$8.87
65.3¢ → 65.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 65.3¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$13.08 | 50% 36322-35805 (72127) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 35.1¢ | $892.51 | $914.57 | +$22.06 | 51% 24195-22931 (47126) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 64.4¢ | $42.3 | $42.37 | +$0.08 | 58% 19331-14228 (33559) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 35.1¢ | $10.71 | $10.98 | +$0.27 | 51% 7646-7363 (15009) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 37.2¢ | $11.19 | $10.84 | -$0.45 | 50% 20688-20949 (41637) |
Invested
$2,657.01
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$13.08
Record
50%
36322-35805 (72127)
Invested
$892.51
Value
$914.57
PnL
+$22.06
Record
51%
24195-22931 (47126)
Invested
$42.3
Value
$42.37
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
19331-14228 (33559)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.71
Value
$10.98
PnL
+$0.27
Record
51%
7646-7363 (15009)
Invested
$11.19
Value
$10.84
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
20688-20949 (41637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.