Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Umraniyespor, while the market favors Boluspor (59%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Boluspor (-1.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Umraniyespor (20%) · Umraniyespor at 41¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 14

Boluspor59¢Umraniyespor41¢Ended Wed, Oct 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Umraniyespor

Consensus Traders

Umraniyespor 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$494.48

Research grade

NeutralUmraniyespor at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Umraniyespor

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Boluspor 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Boluspor59%

Umraniyespor41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boluspor4 traders

Total Value$793.28

Total Shares1,355

Combined PnL+$678.68

Umraniyespor1 trader

Total Value$165.8

Total Shares400

Combined PnL-$184.2

Boluspor — 80%Umraniyespor — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Umraniyespor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBoluspor 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrBoluspor 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Boluspor 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Umraniyesporavg 95.2¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$288.34	58% 50269-36312 (86581)
└ Umraniyespor leg	Umraniyesporavg 95.2¢	$1.3K	$585.59	-$759.72
└ Boluspor leg	Bolusporavg 7¢	$63.98	$535.36	+$471.38
TO topdogbigboi	Bolusporavg 5¢	$46.59	$546.82	+$500.23	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
GO GoalLineGhost	Bolusporavg 12.5¢	$50	$234.2	+$168.2	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Umraniyesporavg 87.5¢	$350	$165.8	-$184.2	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
poshposh<$100	Bolusporavg 9.2¢	$1.72	$10.94	+$9.22	57% 12279-9333 (21612)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Bolusporavg 13.2¢	$0.3	$1.32	+$1.02	49% 14327-15003 (29330)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Umraniyespor

Invested

$1,409.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$288.34

Record

58%

50269-36312 (86581)

Both legs:

Umraniyespor$1,345.3195.2¢-$759.72

Boluspor$63.987¢+$471.38

topdogbigboi

Boluspor

Invested

$46.59

Value

$546.82

PnL

+$500.23

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

GoalLineGhost

Boluspor

Invested

$50

Value

$234.2

PnL

+$168.2

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

FlaznorpCTR

Umraniyespor

Invested

$350

Value

$165.8

PnL

-$184.2

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

poshposh<$100

Boluspor

Invested

$1.72

Value

$10.94

PnL

+$9.22

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

LuckyLoo<$100

Boluspor

Invested

$0.3

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$1.02

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

Research grade

NeutralUmraniyespor at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Umraniyespor

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Boluspor 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Umraniyespor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBoluspor 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrBoluspor 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Boluspor 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Umraniyespor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.6%

41.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$129.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

229.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.