Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: Umraniyespor 0 - 2 Boluspor?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 45¢ · $212 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$211.55
$182.18
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yes | $127.72 | $127.72 | +$106.45 | 25% 462-1416 (1878) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $5.68 | $72.08 | +$66.4 | 58% 51701-37591 (89292) |
YO youcanbuythisbotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $1.65 | $9.01 | +$6.47 | 49% 11141-11501 (22642) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.14 | $2.75 | +$2.87 | 51% 37671-36895 (74566) |
Invested
$127.72
Value
$127.72
PnL
+$106.45
Record
25%
462-1416 (1878)
Invested
$5.68
Value
$72.08
PnL
+$66.4
Record
58%
51701-37591 (89292)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$9.01
PnL
+$6.47
Record
49%
11141-11501 (22642)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$2.87
Record
51%
37671-36895 (74566)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.