Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 41¢ · $255 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$254.85
$56.52
66¢ → 40.5¢
-39% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
52h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 23¢ | $175.83 | $109.01 | +$68.57 | 51% 25532-24237 (49769) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 23.9¢ | $41.02 | $78.55 | +$37.53 | 49% 14639-15352 (29991) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $86.92 | $40.28 | -$46.64 | 47% 10561-12091 (22652) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.7¢ | $59.07 | $22.45 | -$0.42 | 57% 12633-9713 (22346) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $4.02 | $2.28 | -$1.74 | 58% 51318-37292 (88610) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $3.06 | $2.28 | -$0.78 | 47% 11626-13289 (24915) |
Invested
$175.83
Value
$109.01
PnL
+$68.57
Record
51%
25532-24237 (49769)
Invested
$41.02
Value
$78.55
PnL
+$37.53
Record
49%
14639-15352 (29991)
Invested
$86.92
Value
$40.28
PnL
-$46.64
Record
47%
10561-12091 (22652)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$59.07
Value
$22.45
PnL
-$0.42
Record
57%
12633-9713 (22346)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$1.74
Record
58%
51318-37292 (88610)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$0.78
Record
47%
11626-13289 (24915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.