Will Muglaspor win on 2026-11-07?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$4.0K
-$68.5
90.9¢ → 99.3¢
+9% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93.7¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$136.09 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
RO Rocky31 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $1.2K | $979.55 | -$206.9 | 75% 1980-673 (2653) |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $320.48 | $332.95 | +$12.47 | 62% 1925-1170 (3095) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 98.5¢ | $131.33 | $132.33 | +$1 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $75.6 | $75.08 | -$0.52 | 64% 5376-2995 (8371) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $44.45 | $44.5 | +$0.05 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $52.89 | $42.26 | -$10.63 | 47% 11022-12642 (23664) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.92 | $7.86 | -$0.06 | 47% 9568-10685 (20253) |
Invested
$2,290.51
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$136.09
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$1,186.45
Value
$979.55
PnL
-$206.9
Record
75%
1980-673 (2653)
Invested
$320.48
Value
$332.95
PnL
+$12.47
Record
62%
1925-1170 (3095)
Invested
$131.33
Value
$132.33
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Invested
$75.6
Value
$75.08
PnL
-$0.52
Record
64%
5376-2995 (8371)
RN1<$100Invested
$44.45
Value
$44.5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
dips.<$100Invested
$52.89
Value
$42.26
PnL
-$10.63
Record
47%
11022-12642 (23664)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.86
PnL
-$0.06
Record
47%
9568-10685 (20253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.