Kayserispor vs. Muglaspor: O/U 2.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$3.5K
-$67.11
55.6¢ → 54.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE sentrio | Overavg 55¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$10.42 | 50% 25009-24731 (49740) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 56.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$35.49 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Overavg 55¢ | $560.8 | $555.9 | -$4.9 | 47% 2623-2923 (5546) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 56.8¢ | $327.14 | $313.81 | -$13.33 | 58% 48522-34672 (83194) |
 HRTrading | Overavg 55¢ | $271.59 | $269.12 | -$2.47 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $55 | $54.5 | -$0.5 | 47% 10059-11176 (21235) |
Invested
$1,146.59
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$10.42
Record
50%
25009-24731 (49740)
Invested
$1,161.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$35.49
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$560.8
Value
$555.9
PnL
-$4.9
Record
47%
2623-2923 (5546)
Invested
$327.14
Value
$313.81
PnL
-$13.33
Record
58%
48522-34672 (83194)
HRTradingInvested
$271.59
Value
$269.12
PnL
-$2.47
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
Invested
$55
Value
$54.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
47%
10059-11176 (21235)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.