Will Bursaspor win on 2026-11-06?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 6

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 99¢

+56% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares12,044

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 63¢	$3.2K	$4.4K	+$1.3K	51% 26331-24957 (51288)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Noavg 84¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$281.92	82% 2640-589 (3229)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 60.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$2.55	50% 28617-28446 (57063)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.1¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$354.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.1¢	$807.45	$450.5	-$356.95
RN1	Noavg 53.7¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$351.1	53% 61787-54062 (115849)
NO Notradecopy	Noavg 39¢	$500	$705.13	+$205.13	48% 4037-4324 (8361)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 83.1¢	$616.37	$461.34	-$132.58	53% 23842-20976 (44818)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Noavg 61.2¢	$362	$343.07	-$18.93	42% 2461-3356 (5817)
tradecraft	Noavg 45.1¢	$92.69	$119.2	+$26.51	51% 6449-6228 (12677)
dips.	Noavg 55.1¢	$68.08	$116.21	+$48.13	47% 10796-12360 (23156)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$51.46	$63.35	+$11.89	50% 26109-25769 (51878)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 49¢	$20.46	$24.22	+$3.76	64% 10093-5699 (15792)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 42¢	$7.2	$9.43	+$2.23	53% 2621-2316 (4937)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,173.24

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

51%

26331-24957 (51288)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Invested

$2,192.86

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$281.92

Record

82%

2640-589 (3229)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,109.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$2.55

Record

50%

28617-28446 (57063)

Both legs:

No$1,301.7960.1¢+$354.4

Yes$807.4542.1¢-$356.95

RN1

Invested

$1,670.78

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$351.1

Record

53%

61787-54062 (115849)

Notradecopy

Invested

$500

Value

$705.13

PnL

+$205.13

Record

48%

4037-4324 (8361)

cigarettes

Invested

$616.37

Value

$461.34

PnL

-$132.58

Record

53%

23842-20976 (44818)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Invested

$362

Value

$343.07

PnL

-$18.93

Record

42%

2461-3356 (5817)

tradecraft

Invested

$92.69

Value

$119.2

PnL

+$26.51

Record

51%

6449-6228 (12677)

dips.

Invested

$68.08

Value

$116.21

PnL

+$48.13

Record

47%

10796-12360 (23156)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$51.46

Value

$63.35

PnL

+$11.89

Record

50%

26109-25769 (51878)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$20.46

Value

$24.22

PnL

+$3.76

Record

64%

10093-5699 (15792)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$9.43

PnL

+$2.23

Record

53%

2621-2316 (4937)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.