Will Samsunspor win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 64¢ · $326 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$325.83
-$2.12
63.1¢ → 63.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 64.1¢ | $186.21 | $181.59 | -$4.62 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $41.45 | $42.01 | +$0.56 | 46% 1788-2098 (3886) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 59.6¢ | $38.97 | $41.55 | +$2.58 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.8¢ | $41.08 | $40.23 | -$0.85 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $8.51 | $8.58 | +$0.07 | 53% 62307-54551 (116858) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $6.12 | $6.25 | +$0.13 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.85 | -$0.1 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.65 | $2.77 | +$0.12 | 51% 6512-6276 (12788) |
Invested
$186.21
Value
$181.59
PnL
-$4.62
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Invested
$41.45
Value
$42.01
PnL
+$0.56
Record
46%
1788-2098 (3886)
Invested
$38.97
Value
$41.55
PnL
+$2.58
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$41.08
Value
$40.23
PnL
-$0.85
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
RN1<$100Invested
$8.51
Value
$8.58
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
62307-54551 (116858)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$0.13
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.85
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.77
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
6512-6276 (12788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.