Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Konyaspor win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 32¢ · $406 held · ends Nov 7

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$405.88

Combined PnL

-$24.57

Smart Money Entry

31.1¢ → 31.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$340.96

Total Shares1,169

Combined PnL-$25.63

No3 traders

Total Value$64.93

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$1.06

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$210.72	$183.24	-$27.49	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$154.36	$156.37	+$2.01	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 68¢	$47.01	$47.72	+$0.71	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 68¢	$13.45	$13.55	+$0.1	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.65	+$0.25	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.35	-$0.15	52% 9014-8167 (17181)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$210.72

Value

$183.24

PnL

-$27.49

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$154.36

Value

$156.37

PnL

+$2.01

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$47.01

Value

$47.72

PnL

+$0.71

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$13.45

Value

$13.55

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

9014-8167 (17181)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.