Will Erzurumspor FK win on 2026-11-08?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$595.29

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 98.9¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,813

Combined PnL+$810.83

Yes4 traders

Total Value$529.63

Total Shares3,557

Combined PnL-$215.54

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 79.1¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$546.73	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 81¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$245.2	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$632.47	$516.96	-$115.52	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 97.6¢	$507.11	$505.88	-$1.23	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
VE Venusian	Noavg 95.6¢	$326.23	$323.78	-$2.45	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 85.4¢	$292.88	$275.72	-$17.17	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
LI Limousin	Noavg 83.6¢	$213.41	$249.73	+$36.32	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 83.1¢	$222.01	$105.24	+$3.43	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$48.35	$5.4	-$42.95	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$62.05	$4.82	-$57.23	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$2.3	$2.45	+$0.15	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,399.38

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$546.73

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,109.54

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$245.2

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$632.47

Value

$516.96

PnL

-$115.52

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LightParadox

Invested

$507.11

Value

$505.88

PnL

-$1.23

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Venusian

Invested

$326.23

Value

$323.78

PnL

-$2.45

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

38791873984189

Invested

$292.88

Value

$275.72

PnL

-$17.17

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Limousin

Invested

$213.41

Value

$249.73

PnL

+$36.32

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Pan9X

Invested

$222.01

Value

$105.24

PnL

+$3.43

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.35

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$42.95

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.05

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$57.23

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.