Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Erzurumspor FK end in a draw?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $975 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$975.07
-$30.53
77.9¢ → 88.5¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 86.3¢ | $273.58 | $258.56 | -$15.02 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 71.3¢ | $237.93 | $241.03 | +$49.35 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 82.6¢ | $186.49 | $159.53 | -$26.96 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Noavg 66.5¢ | $82.25 | $109.48 | +$27.23 | 46% 1795-2102 (3897) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $69.41 | $71.1 | +$1.7 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $84.47 | $68.78 | -$15.69 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $48.54 | $36.17 | -$12.37 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $62.31 | $25.73 | -$36.58 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $6.88 | $4.69 | -$2.19 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
Invested
$273.58
Value
$258.56
PnL
-$15.02
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$237.93
Value
$241.03
PnL
+$49.35
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$186.49
Value
$159.53
PnL
-$26.96
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$82.25
Value
$109.48
PnL
+$27.23
Record
46%
1795-2102 (3897)
Invested
$69.41
Value
$71.1
PnL
+$1.7
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$84.47
Value
$68.78
PnL
-$15.69
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$48.54
Value
$36.17
PnL
-$12.37
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$62.31
Value
$25.73
PnL
-$36.58
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$6.88
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$2.19
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.