Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 39¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$1.1K
-$12.92
39.7¢ → 38.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $526.27 | $506.53 | -$19.74 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
 fyrskenCTR | Underavg 39¢ | $195 | $195 | -$0 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 60¢ | $180 | $183 | +$4.5 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 61¢ | $122 | $123 | +$1 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $49.55 | $49.55 | +$0.41 | 50% 19439-19808 (39247) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $43.45 | $44.04 | +$0.91 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
Invested
$526.27
Value
$506.53
PnL
-$19.74
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$195
Value
$195
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
290-305 (595)
VeryLucky888Invested
$180
Value
$183
PnL
+$4.5
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
0xheavy888Invested
$122
Value
$123
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$49.55
Value
$49.55
PnL
+$0.41
Record
50%
19439-19808 (39247)
Invested
$43.45
Value
$44.04
PnL
+$0.91
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.