Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$2.1K
$432.19
62.8¢ → 100¢
+59% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 61.6¢ | $833.68 | $1.3K | +$502.93 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $437.77 | $399.63 | -$38.14 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 77.1¢ | $188.85 | $118.83 | -$70.03 | 72% 2540-972 (3512) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 56.7¢ | $127.5 | $115.88 | -$11.63 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $31.35 | $84.98 | +$53.63 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $38.33 | $35.89 | -$2.44 | 51% 6525-6188 (12713) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 64.7¢ | $10.51 | $8.37 | -$2.14 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$833.68
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$502.93
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
RN1CTRInvested
$437.77
Value
$399.63
PnL
-$38.14
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$188.85
Value
$118.83
PnL
-$70.03
Record
72%
2540-972 (3512)
VeryLucky888Invested
$127.5
Value
$115.88
PnL
-$11.63
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$31.35
Value
$84.98
PnL
+$53.63
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$38.33
Value
$35.89
PnL
-$2.44
Record
51%
6525-6188 (12713)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.51
Value
$8.37
PnL
-$2.14
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.