Gaziantep FK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 66¢ · $857 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$857.36
-$161.87
67.4¢ → 65.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 68.3¢ | $409.5 | $300 | -$109.5 | 58% 47033-33917 (80950) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 66.5¢ | $266 | $266 | +$0 | 56% 8099-6423 (14522) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 32.1¢ | $116.48 | $121.55 | +$5.07 | 51% 26315-24941 (51256) |
SE sentrio | Underavg 69¢ | $112.36 | $81.42 | -$30.94 | 50% 26084-25740 (51824) |
NO Notradecopy | Underavg 65¢ | $103.92 | $79.94 | -$23.98 | 48% 4036-4321 (8357) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $10 | $7.46 | -$2.54 | 53% 2617-2309 (4926) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $0.98 | $0.99 | +$0.01 | 50% 37958-37207 (75165) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$409.5
Value
$300
PnL
-$109.5
Record
58%
47033-33917 (80950)
0xheavy888Invested
$266
Value
$266
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
8099-6423 (14522)
Invested
$116.48
Value
$121.55
PnL
+$5.07
Record
51%
26315-24941 (51256)
Invested
$112.36
Value
$81.42
PnL
-$30.94
Record
50%
26084-25740 (51824)
Invested
$103.92
Value
$79.94
PnL
-$23.98
Record
48%
4036-4321 (8357)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$7.46
PnL
-$2.54
Record
53%
2617-2309 (4926)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
37958-37207 (75165)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.