Galatasaray SK vs. Amed Sportif: O/U 3.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$9.52

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 55.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$506

Total Shares839

Combined PnL+$5.14

Over2 traders

Total Value$296.98

Total Shares660

Combined PnL-$14.66

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 54¢	$426.54	$431.67	+$5.14	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 47.2¢	$309.41	$294.73	-$14.68	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$200	$198	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$108	+$10
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$90	-$10
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 54¢	$74.33	$74.33	-$0	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.25	+$0.03	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$426.54

Value

$431.67

PnL

+$5.14

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$309.41

Value

$294.73

PnL

-$14.68

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Both legs:

Invested

$74.33

Value

$74.33

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.