Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 31¢ · $444 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$444.35
-$3.56
31.9¢ → 30.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 31.9¢ | $231.71 | $221.63 | -$10.08 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Noavg 32.1¢ | $141.31 | $134.4 | +$6.61 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $42.91 | $42.29 | -$0.62 | 64% 2032-1134 (3166) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $38.19 | $37.49 | +$0.2 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $5.4 | $5.49 | +$0.09 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $3 | $3.05 | +$0.25 | 52% 8958-8128 (17086) |
Invested
$231.71
Value
$221.63
PnL
-$10.08
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$141.31
Value
$134.4
PnL
+$6.61
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
Invested
$42.91
Value
$42.29
PnL
-$0.62
Record
64%
2032-1134 (3166)
Invested
$38.19
Value
$37.49
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.49
PnL
+$0.09
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Invested
$3
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
8958-8128 (17086)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.