Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 87¢ · $652 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$652
$46.69
79.7¢ → 87¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 84.4¢ | $337.8 | $348.25 | +$4.55 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 87.6¢ | $109.57 | $108.23 | -$1.33 | 50% 21530-21816 (43346) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Noavg 50¢ | $58.5 | $101.79 | +$42.71 | — 1-0 (1) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $71.97 | $72.39 | +$0.42 | 49% 1807-1885 (3692) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $10 | $10.23 | +$0.18 | 53% 2689-2368 (5057) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $6.5 | $6.75 | +$0.25 | 54% 10426-8742 (19168) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.35 | -$0.08 | 50% 26374-25995 (52369) |
Invested
$337.8
Value
$348.25
PnL
+$4.55
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$109.57
Value
$108.23
PnL
-$1.33
Record
50%
21530-21816 (43346)
Invested
$58.5
Value
$101.79
PnL
+$42.71
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$71.97
Value
$72.39
PnL
+$0.42
Record
49%
1807-1885 (3692)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.23
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
2689-2368 (5057)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
54%
10426-8742 (19168)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.35
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
26374-25995 (52369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.