Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Kocaelispor win on 2026-11-07?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$0.53

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,600

Combined PnL+$0.55

Yes2 traders

Total Value$58.77

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$0.02

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 49¢	$453.24	$457.86	+$4.62	64% 10173-5762 (15935)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 50.2¢	$367.1	$359.98	-$7.12	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 49¢	$314.44	$317.65	+$3.21	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 48.9¢	$80.88	$81.93	+$1.06	50% 28880-28690 (57570)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$53.93	$53.93	+$0	64% 2035-1134 (3169)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 51.6¢	$44.01	$41.8	-$1.35	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$24.5	$24.75	+$0.25	54% 10426-8742 (19168)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$8.74	$8.92	+$0.09	51% 38177-37419 (75596)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$7.16	$6.98	-$0.18	49% 1765-1864 (3629)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$6.87	$6.9	+$0.03	58% 47459-34244 (81703)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$5.38	$5.27	-$0.05	50% 26374-25995 (52369)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$4.86	$4.83	-$0.02	48% 1742-1871 (3613)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$453.24

Value

$457.86

PnL

+$4.62

Record

64%

10173-5762 (15935)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$367.1

Value

$359.98

PnL

-$7.12

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$314.44

Value

$317.65

PnL

+$3.21

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$80.88

Value

$81.93

PnL

+$1.06

Record

50%

28880-28690 (57570)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.93

Value

$53.93

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

2035-1134 (3169)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$44.01

Value

$41.8

PnL

-$1.35

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Invested

$24.5

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

10426-8742 (19168)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$8.74

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

38177-37419 (75596)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$7.16

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

1765-1864 (3629)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$6.87

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

26374-25995 (52369)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.83

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

1742-1871 (3613)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.