Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Eyüpspor vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 20¢ · $865 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 44%
$864.62
-$33.3
28.9¢ → 19.5¢
-33% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 71¢ | $269.31 | $305.34 | +$36.03 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $254.58 | $207.7 | -$46.88 | 49% 1821-1900 (3721) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $140 | $122.5 | -$17.5 | 64% 10176-5763 (15939) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 70.9¢ | $75.64 | $85.83 | +$10.2 | 48% 62379-67237 (129616) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $81.02 | $70.9 | -$10.13 | 64% 10178-5715 (15893) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $35.5 | $39.75 | +$4.25 | 54% 10438-8758 (19196) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $32.29 | $23.19 | -$9.1 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $5.98 | $5.88 | -$0.1 | 48% 1756-1884 (3640) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.53 | -$0.08 | 53% 62287-54524 (116811) |
Invested
$269.31
Value
$305.34
PnL
+$36.03
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Invested
$254.58
Value
$207.7
PnL
-$46.88
Record
49%
1821-1900 (3721)
Invested
$140
Value
$122.5
PnL
-$17.5
Record
64%
10176-5763 (15939)
Invested
$75.64
Value
$85.83
PnL
+$10.2
Record
48%
62379-67237 (129616)
Invested
$81.02
Value
$70.9
PnL
-$10.13
Record
64%
10178-5715 (15893)
Invested
$35.5
Value
$39.75
PnL
+$4.25
Record
54%
10438-8758 (19196)
Invested
$32.29
Value
$23.19
PnL
-$9.1
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.88
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
1756-1884 (3640)
RN1<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.53
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
62287-54524 (116811)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.