Eyüpspor vs. Kocaelispor: Both Teams to Score
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 91¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$4.0K
$582.93
54.1¢ → 90.5¢
+67% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 55.1¢ | $2.6K | $3.2K | +$666.6 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 52¢ | $203.72 | $313.33 | -$74.79 | 56% 8222-6527 (14749) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 51.3¢ | $263.33 | $215.8 | -$47.53 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 50.2¢ | $180.88 | $208.25 | +$27.37 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $14.61 | $24.67 | +$10.06 | 50% 21541-21839 (43380) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $16.94 | $18.3 | +$1.36 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 43.2¢ | $2.87 | $2.79 | -$0.08 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $1.47 | $1.4 | -$0.07 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
Invested
$2,569.91
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$666.6
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
0xheavy888Invested
$203.72
Value
$313.33
PnL
-$74.79
Record
56%
8222-6527 (14749)
Invested
$263.33
Value
$215.8
PnL
-$47.53
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$180.88
Value
$208.25
PnL
+$27.37
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$14.61
Value
$24.67
PnL
+$10.06
Record
50%
21541-21839 (43380)
Invested
$16.94
Value
$18.3
PnL
+$1.36
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
Invested
$2.87
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.47
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.