Erzurumspor FK vs. Çorum FK: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 93¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
$3.9K
$573.95
86.1¢ → 93¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 86.1¢ | $3.6K | $3.8K | +$573.47 | 72% 2405-930 (3335) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $2.19 | $1.92 | -$0.27 | 63% 1111-641 (1752) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $1.1 | $1.85 | +$0.75 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.