Exact Score: Çorum FK 2 - 0 Fenerbahçe SK?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.7K
$345.81
99.3¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$3.07 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $14.02 | $215.08 | +$201.06 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $10.65 | $163.28 | +$152.64 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.8¢ | $148.93 | $148.99 | +$0.84 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $33.53 | $21.72 | -$11.81 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
Invested
$1,101.34
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$3.07
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$14.02
Value
$215.08
PnL
+$201.06
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$10.65
Value
$163.28
PnL
+$152.64
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$148.93
Value
$148.99
PnL
+$0.84
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$33.53
Value
$21.72
PnL
-$11.81
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.