Will Çorum FK win on 2026-11-08?
13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 74¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$28.3K
-$902.66
76.2¢ → 73.5¢
-4% since entry · 13 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
13 of 13 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 76.5¢ | $10.7K | $10.3K | -$378.19 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $7.5K | $7.3K | -$200 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 76.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$71.99 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 76.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$71.97 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$15.74 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$57.64 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $647.93 | $689.83 | +$41.9 | |
GA Gaditima | Noavg 75.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$34.5 | 47% 7503-8319 (15822) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 78¢ | $936 | $882 | -$54 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 77¢ | $809.31 | $772.52 | -$36.79 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 78¢ | $624 | $588 | -$36 | 56% 8260-6557 (14817) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 78.9¢ | $434.77 | $427.28 | -$7.49 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $200.48 | $230.05 | +$29.57 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $126.95 | $163.96 | +$37.01 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81.8¢ | $73.53 | $66.09 | -$7.44 | |
LI Limousin | Noavg 81.8¢ | $121.03 | $113.23 | -$7.8 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $85.26 | $76.55 | -$0.31 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $53.21 | $49.78 | -$3.43 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $9.03 | $8.83 | -$0.2 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
Invested
$10,679.61
Value
$10.3K
PnL
-$378.19
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1Invested
$7,550
Value
$7.3K
PnL
-$200
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$2,112.92
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$71.99
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$2,112.03
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$71.97
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$1,908.29
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$15.74
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,578
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$34.5
Record
47%
7503-8319 (15822)
VeryLucky888Invested
$936
Value
$882
PnL
-$54
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$809.31
Value
$772.52
PnL
-$36.79
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
0xheavy888Invested
$624
Value
$588
PnL
-$36
Record
56%
8260-6557 (14817)
Invested
$434.77
Value
$427.28
PnL
-$7.49
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$200.48
Value
$230.05
PnL
+$29.57
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Both legs:
Invested
$121.03
Value
$113.23
PnL
-$7.8
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$85.26
Value
$76.55
PnL
-$0.31
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$53.21
Value
$49.78
PnL
-$3.43
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$9.03
Value
$8.83
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.