Beşiktaş JK vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 4.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 91¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$1.4K
$298.25
63.6¢ → 90.5¢
+42% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 64.8¢ | $552.39 | $677.17 | +$124.78 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 61.6¢ | $423.3 | $579.21 | +$155.9 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $31.28 | $48.76 | +$17.48 | 46% 12092-14003 (26095) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $46.06 | $42.22 | -$3.84 | 56% 8753-6943 (15696) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $55.66 | $40.35 | +$0.83 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $63.76 | $17.53 | +$0.32 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $3.77 | $6.54 | +$2.77 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
Invested
$552.39
Value
$677.17
PnL
+$124.78
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Invested
$423.3
Value
$579.21
PnL
+$155.9
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$31.28
Value
$48.76
PnL
+$17.48
Record
46%
12092-14003 (26095)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$46.06
Value
$42.22
PnL
-$3.84
Record
56%
8753-6943 (15696)
Invested
$55.66
Value
$40.35
PnL
+$0.83
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$63.76
Value
$17.53
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$3.77
Value
$6.54
PnL
+$2.77
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.