Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$11.37

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 95.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,231

Combined PnL+$20.15

Yes5 traders

Total Value$83.31

Total Shares1,779

Combined PnL-$8.78

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 94¢	$773.71	$777.83	+$4.12	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-P	Noavg 94¢	$773.21	$777.32	+$4.11	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
VE Venusian	Noavg 94.9¢	$541.89	$545.27	+$3.38	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 94¢	$462.14	$464.6	+$2.46	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94¢	$292.26	$293.81	+$1.55	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
0xheavy888	Noavg 93¢	$196.56	$185.75	+$2.95	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$67.8	$61.02	-$6.78	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$257.83	$14.18	-$1.29	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$93.5	$10.2	+$1.55	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.77	+$0.02	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$5	$4.5	-$0.5	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.04	$1.87	-$0.17	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$1.78	$1.74	-$0.04	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

GC-P

Invested

$773.71

Value

$777.83

PnL

+$4.12

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-P

Invested

$773.21

Value

$777.32

PnL

+$4.11

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Venusian

Invested

$541.89

Value

$545.27

PnL

+$3.38

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Flaznorp

Invested

$462.14

Value

$464.6

PnL

+$2.46

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

SnakeBall

Invested

$292.26

Value

$293.81

PnL

+$1.55

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

0xheavy888

Invested

$196.56

Value

$185.75

PnL

+$2.95

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.8

Value

$61.02

PnL

-$6.78

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$257.83

Value

$14.18

PnL

-$1.29

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$93.5

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$1.55

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.17

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.