Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 85¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes85¢No15¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$21.46

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 84.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,602

Combined PnL-$47.05

No8 traders

Total Value$991.42

Total Shares6,376

Combined PnL+$25.59

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 85.7¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$47.67	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 14.5¢	$437.65	$467.81	+$30.17	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 83.7¢	$233.91	$236.1	+$2.19	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 86¢	$232.37	$230.12	-$2.24	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 14.9¢	$201.58	$209.47	+$7.89	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 85¢	$179.05	$181.23	+$2.18	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 85.6¢	$214	$169	-$1.5	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 16.3¢	$128.87	$122.58	-$6.29	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 15.7¢	$82.97	$82.05	-$0.93	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 15.6¢	$62.07	$57.74	-$4.33	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 17.6¢	$21.06	$20.93	-$0.13	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$16.26	$15.93	-$0.33	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$90.36	$14.91	-$0.45	59% 52299-37045 (89344)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,660.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$47.67

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$437.65

Value

$467.81

PnL

+$30.17

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$233.91

Value

$236.1

PnL

+$2.19

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$232.37

Value

$230.12

PnL

-$2.24

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$201.58

Value

$209.47

PnL

+$7.89

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$179.05

Value

$181.23

PnL

+$2.18

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$214

Value

$169

PnL

-$1.5

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$128.87

Value

$122.58

PnL

-$6.29

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$82.97

Value

$82.05

PnL

-$0.93

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$62.07

Value

$57.74

PnL

-$4.33

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$21.06

Value

$20.93

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$16.26

Value

$15.93

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$90.36

Value

$14.91

PnL

-$0.45

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.