Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$5.74

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 98.9¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares12,150

Combined PnL+$17.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$100.3

Total Shares10,029

Combined PnL-$11.42

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thoodr	Noavg 98.9¢	$11.2K	$11.2K	+$12.66	95% 317-18 (335)
MisTKy	Noavg 97.7¢	$429.57	$435.29	+$5.72	— 3-10 (13)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 99.3¢	$392.29	$390.98	-$1.31	— 2-2 (4)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$110	$100	-$10	60% 503-336 (839)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98¢	$8.52	$8.6	+$0.09	72% 36-14 (50)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.6	$0.2	-$1.4	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.15	$0.08	+$0.04	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.08	$0.02	-$0.06	13% 13-84 (97)

thoodr

Invested

$11,180.56

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$12.66

Record

95%

317-18 (335)

MisTKy

Invested

$429.57

Value

$435.29

PnL

+$5.72

Record

—

3-10 (13)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$392.29

Value

$390.98

PnL

-$1.31

Record

—

2-2 (4)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$110

Value

$100

PnL

-$10

Record

60%

503-336 (839)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$8.52

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.09

Record

72%

36-14 (50)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.4

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

13%

13-84 (97)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.