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3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$5.0K
$130.1
91¢ → 95¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Yesavg 90.8¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$133.19 | 50% 936-948 (1884) |
 Rex416 | Yesavg 93¢ | $437 | $412.97 | +$6.56 | 57% 2504-1903 (4407) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.9¢ | $32.61 | $26.17 | -$6.44 | 35% 14744-26906 (41650) |
KI KiruaTrading<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $23.2 | $19.9 | -$3.2 | 56% 255-197 (452) |
smellyEllieInvested
$4,427.34
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$133.19
Record
50%
936-948 (1884)
Rex416Invested
$437
Value
$412.97
PnL
+$6.56
Record
57%
2504-1903 (4407)
Invested
$32.61
Value
$26.17
PnL
-$6.44
Record
35%
14744-26906 (41650)
Invested
$23.2
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$3.2
Record
56%
255-197 (452)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.