Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Third Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 31¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$14.22

Smart Money Entry

27.8¢ → 30.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,218

Combined PnL+$69.37

No7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,646

Combined PnL-$55.15

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$559.99	$609.99	+$50	— 3-0 (3)
TBill1	Noavg 73¢	$405.15	$385.72	-$19.43	2% 2-107 (109)
Parz1vaICTR	Yesavg 29¢	$363.11	$363.11	-$0	72% 1114-425 (1539)
StarMaster	Noavg 72¢	$360	$347.5	-$12.5	— 2-2 (4)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$285.88	$291.17	+$5.29	— 2-14 (16)
PB pbshineCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$185.24	$195.92	+$10.69	— 2-8 (10)
Car	Noavg 71.2¢	$201.28	$180.87	-$20.41	68% 1401-646 (2047)
JE Jest55	Noavg 72¢	$144	$145	+$1	— 2-16 (18)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$71.47	$74.86	+$3.39	40% 3295-4922 (8217)
88 881112<$100	Noavg 68¢	$67.99	$63.99	-$4	1% 3-420 (423)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 70¢	$33.13	$3.56	+$0.42	39% 70-111 (181)
KR KrackenSruster<$100	Noavg 71¢	$2.45	$2.21	-$0.24	—

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$559.99

Value

$609.99

PnL

+$50

Record

—

3-0 (3)

TBill1

Invested

$405.15

Value

$385.72

PnL

-$19.43

Record

2-107 (109)

Parz1vaICTR

Yes

Invested

$363.11

Value

$363.11

PnL

-$0

Record

72%

1114-425 (1539)

StarMaster

Invested

$360

Value

$347.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

—

2-2 (4)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR

Yes

Invested

$285.88

Value

$291.17

PnL

+$5.29

Record

—

2-14 (16)

pbshineCTR

Yes

Invested

$185.24

Value

$195.92

PnL

+$10.69

Record

—

2-8 (10)

Car

Invested

$201.28

Value

$180.87

PnL

-$20.41

Record

68%

1401-646 (2047)

Jest55

Invested

$144

Value

$145

PnL

+$1

Record

—

2-16 (18)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.47

Value

$74.86

PnL

+$3.39

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

881112<$100

Invested

$67.99

Value

$63.99

PnL

-$4

Record

3-420 (423)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$33.13

Value

$3.56

PnL

+$0.42

Record

39%

70-111 (181)

KrackenSruster<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$0.24

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.