Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Chonburi FC vs. BG Pathum United: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 45¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
3 arb excluded
$4.5K
-$1.21
40.3¢ → 44.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 49.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$21.32 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$64.47 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.2¢ | $974.34 | $1.1K | +$85.78 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$28.32 | 54% 58154-50376 (108530) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48¢ | $727.86 | $697.07 | -$30.79 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.8¢ | $631.9 | $634.38 | +$2.47 | |
 alpheclabs2CTR | Overavg 36.4¢ | $492.72 | $595.39 | +$35.01 | 49% 96-100 (196) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 50.3¢ | $234.16 | $263.36 | +$29.21 | 50% 26430-26259 (52689) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.3¢ | $157.41 | $167.26 | +$9.85 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 37.1¢ | $76.75 | $96.1 | +$19.35 | |
SU suntoriCTR | Overavg 64.7¢ | $159.21 | $119.82 | -$39.39 | 45% 12937-15707 (28644) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $26.81 | $29.49 | +$2.68 | 58% 11442-8290 (19732) |
MO mouzsynapse<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $20.33 | $20.71 | +$0.38 | 40% 1074-1636 (2710) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $2.9 | $3.01 | +$0.11 | 50% 25009-24731 (49740) |
Invested
$2,102.05
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$21.32
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,359.77
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$28.32
Record
54%
58154-50376 (108530)
Both legs:
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$492.72
Value
$595.39
PnL
+$35.01
Record
49%
96-100 (196)
Invested
$234.16
Value
$263.36
PnL
+$29.21
Record
50%
26430-26259 (52689)
Both legs:
Invested
$159.21
Value
$119.82
PnL
-$39.39
Record
45%
12937-15707 (28644)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$26.81
Value
$29.49
PnL
+$2.68
Record
58%
11442-8290 (19732)
Invested
$20.33
Value
$20.71
PnL
+$0.38
Record
40%
1074-1636 (2710)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$3.01
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
25009-24731 (49740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.