Will BG Pathum United win on 2026-11-02?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 72¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$4.3K
$127.06
66.9¢ → 72¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$33.84 | 54% 58149-50375 (108524) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$104.81 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $488.11 | $417.14 | -$70.97 | |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 66.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$92.21 | 51% 17616-16619 (34235) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 68.4¢ | $695.66 | $737.69 | +$42.03 | 50% 26430-26259 (52689) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $41.03 | $31.77 | -$9.26 | 45% 12923-15690 (28613) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 63.2¢ | $16.95 | $19.06 | +$2.11 | 53% 6373-5762 (12135) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.38 | -$0.02 | 51% 1000-963 (1963) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,892.35
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$33.84
Record
54%
58149-50375 (108524)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,429.68
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$92.21
Record
51%
17616-16619 (34235)
Invested
$695.66
Value
$737.69
PnL
+$42.03
Record
50%
26430-26259 (52689)
Invested
$41.03
Value
$31.77
PnL
-$9.26
Record
45%
12923-15690 (28613)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16.95
Value
$19.06
PnL
+$2.11
Record
53%
6373-5762 (12135)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
1000-963 (1963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.