Chonburi FC vs. BG Pathum United: Both Teams to Score
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 71¢ · $847 held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$847.43
$154.48
53.9¢ → 71¢
+32% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 54.1¢ | $523.22 | $664.98 | +$141.76 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 65.7¢ | $62.08 | $67.54 | +$5.45 | 49% 13479-14174 (27653) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 42.4¢ | $34.24 | $34.72 | +$0.88 | 58% 43600-31711 (75311) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $32.76 | $32.76 | +$0 | 45% 12902-15667 (28569) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $20.58 | $25.74 | +$5.16 | 58% 48512-34664 (83176) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $15.05 | $15.05 | -$0 | 51% 997-961 (1958) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $5.41 | $6.65 | +$1.23 | 50% 34699-34164 (68863) |
Invested
$523.22
Value
$664.98
PnL
+$141.76
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Invested
$62.08
Value
$67.54
PnL
+$5.45
Record
49%
13479-14174 (27653)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$34.24
Value
$34.72
PnL
+$0.88
Record
58%
43600-31711 (75311)
Invested
$32.76
Value
$32.76
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
12902-15667 (28569)
Invested
$20.58
Value
$25.74
PnL
+$5.16
Record
58%
48512-34664 (83176)
Invested
$15.05
Value
$15.05
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
997-961 (1958)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$1.23
Record
50%
34699-34164 (68863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.