Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$189.95
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatARB<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $97 | $922.96 | +$220.74 | 44% 389-487 (876) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 62¢ | $883.68 | $634.25 | +$244.64 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 35¢ | $182.07 | $288.71 | -$23.9 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 34.1¢ | $384.34 | $121.69 | +$163.57 | 35% 17355-32033 (49388) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $31.57 | $51.98 | +$20.41 | 50% 1237-1251 (2488) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $46.18 | $31.17 | +$5.97 | 27% 6133-16273 (22406) |
YoungAlphaGoatARB<$100Invested
$97
Value
$922.96
PnL
+$220.74
Record
44%
389-487 (876)
Both legs:
Invested
$384.34
Value
$121.69
PnL
+$163.57
Record
35%
17355-32033 (49388)
Invested
$31.57
Value
$51.98
PnL
+$20.41
Record
50%
1237-1251 (2488)
Invested
$46.18
Value
$31.17
PnL
+$5.97
Record
27%
6133-16273 (22406)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.