Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 79¢ · $578 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$578.3
$72.08
81.5¢ → 79¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
221h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Porx | Noavg 78.2¢ | $254.14 | $263.13 | -$2.38 | 66% 1462-758 (2220) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 87.8¢ | $222.94 | $199.19 | -$23.74 | 65% 492-264 (756) |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960<$100 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $58.66 | $61.23 | +$2.57 | 62% 151-94 (245) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $93.1 | $41.52 | +$88.47 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
 RelaccsedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.8¢ | $6.07 | $13.23 | +$7.16 | 56% 1203-955 (2158) |
PorxInvested
$254.14
Value
$263.13
PnL
-$2.38
Record
66%
1462-758 (2220)
Invested
$222.94
Value
$199.19
PnL
-$23.74
Record
65%
492-264 (756)
Invested
$58.66
Value
$61.23
PnL
+$2.57
Record
62%
151-94 (245)
Invested
$93.1
Value
$41.52
PnL
+$88.47
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
RelaccsedCTR<$100Invested
$6.07
Value
$13.23
PnL
+$7.16
Record
56%
1203-955 (2158)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.