Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
IFK Varnamo vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: Both Teams to Score
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 32¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$53.34
-$3.9
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.1¢ | $18.83 | $18.21 | -$0.62 | 48% 1756-1884 (3640) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.1¢ | $10.11 | $9.78 | -$0.33 | 49% 1821-1900 (3721) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.1¢ | $9.09 | $8.79 | -$0.3 | 50% 1834-1824 (3658) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $4.8 | $4.8 | +$0 | 55% 1424-1175 (2599) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.1¢ | $5 | $4.43 | -$0.57 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $5.74 | $3.66 | -$2.07 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $2.03 | $2.07 | +$0.05 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.6 | -$0.05 | 49% 14973-15876 (30849) |
Invested
$18.83
Value
$18.21
PnL
-$0.62
Record
48%
1756-1884 (3640)
Invested
$10.11
Value
$9.78
PnL
-$0.33
Record
49%
1821-1900 (3721)
Invested
$9.09
Value
$8.79
PnL
-$0.3
Record
50%
1834-1824 (3658)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1424-1175 (2599)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.43
PnL
-$0.57
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
Invested
$5.74
Value
$3.66
PnL
-$2.07
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$2.07
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
14973-15876 (30849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.