Will Landskrona BoIS win on 2026-11-02?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 55¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$7.6K
-$13.47
55¢ → 54.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | Yesavg 55¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$43.87 | 50% 495-492 (987) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 45¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$14.2 | 58% 48522-34672 (83194) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 45¢ | $995.4 | $1.0K | +$11.06 | 49% 13480-14176 (27656) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 45¢ | $342.9 | $429.44 | +$4.72 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $52.15 | $52.41 | +$0.61 | 53% 16265-14441 (30706) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $19.64 | $19.64 | -$0.22 | 58% 29907-21965 (51872) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $2.01 | $2.03 | +$0.02 | 53% 1051-933 (1984) |
Invested
$4,825.45
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$43.87
Record
50%
495-492 (987)
Invested
$1,257.37
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$14.2
Record
58%
48522-34672 (83194)
Invested
$995.4
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$11.06
Record
49%
13480-14176 (27656)
Invested
$342.9
Value
$429.44
PnL
+$4.72
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$52.15
Value
$52.41
PnL
+$0.61
Record
53%
16265-14441 (30706)
Invested
$19.64
Value
$19.64
PnL
-$0.22
Record
58%
29907-21965 (51872)
Invested
$2.01
Value
$2.03
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
1051-933 (1984)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.