IK Sirius vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 4.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 84¢ · $313 held · ended Nov 3

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$313.39

Combined PnL

-$12.25

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 84¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$210.93

Total Shares248

Combined PnL+$8.25

Over6 traders

Total Value$102.46

Total Shares640

Combined PnL-$20.51

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 70.8¢	$149.74	$179.88	+$6.87	58% 44668-32527 (77195)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 28.6¢	$86.59	$72.41	-$14.18	51% 23440-22208 (45648)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 80.3¢	$19.89	$21.05	+$1.15	50% 27338-27264 (54602)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$10.99	$10.99	+$0	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 83¢	$9.76	$10	+$0.24	50% 11610-11462 (23072)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$9.11	$6.34	-$2.77	49% 14113-14680 (28793)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$8.63	$5.12	-$3.51	53% 928-828 (1756)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 28.2¢	$3.89	$3.96	+$0.07	51% 7362-7108 (14470)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$3.75	$3.64	-$0.11	48% 6175-6580 (12755)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$149.74

Value

$179.88

PnL

+$6.87

Record

58%

44668-32527 (77195)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$86.59

Value

$72.41

PnL

-$14.18

Record

51%

23440-22208 (45648)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$19.89

Value

$21.05

PnL

+$1.15

Record

50%

27338-27264 (54602)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.99

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$9.76

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

11610-11462 (23072)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.11

Value

$6.34

PnL

-$2.77

Record

49%

14113-14680 (28793)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.63

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$3.51

Record

53%

928-828 (1756)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

7362-7108 (14470)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

6175-6580 (12755)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.