Orgryte IS vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 2.5

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 73¢ · $901 held · ended Sep 6

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Sun, Sep 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$901.38

Combined PnL

$127.21

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$787.75

Total Shares1,013

Combined PnL+$172.29

Under2 traders

Total Value$55.6

Total Shares202

Combined PnL-$45.08

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 52.7¢	$615.46	$787.75	+$172.29	53% 60814-53199 (114013)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 26¢	$59.11	$58.04	-$1.07	50% 37310-36579 (73889)
└ Under leg	Underavg 26¢	$30.57	$32.28	+$1.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 80.3¢	$28.53	$25.76	-$2.77
DA dashattackerCTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$84.01	$37.26	-$46.75	73% 2967-1114 (4081)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$16.67	$18.33	+$1.67	58% 46107-33290 (79397)

RN1

Over

Invested

$615.46

Value

$787.75

PnL

+$172.29

Record

53%

60814-53199 (114013)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$59.11

Value

$58.04

PnL

-$1.07

Record

50%

37310-36579 (73889)

Both legs:

Under$30.5726¢+$1.71

Over$28.5380.3¢-$2.77

dashattackerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.01

Value

$37.26

PnL

-$46.75

Record

73%

2967-1114 (4081)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.67

Value

$18.33

PnL

+$1.67

Record

58%

46107-33290 (79397)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.