Spread: Hammarby IF (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold IF Elfsborg (80%) · IF Elfsborg at 51¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
IF Elfsborg
5
IF Elfsborg 80%
$8.8K
$7.38
53.5¢ → 50.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralIF Elfsborg at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on IF Elfsborg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | IF Elfsborgavg 53.6¢ | $4.6K | $4.3K | -$257.38 | 51% 26324-24949 (51273) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Hammarby IFavg 47.1¢ | $3.8K | $4.0K | +$292.23 | 50% 21367-21638 (43005) |
 VeryLucky888 | IF Elfsborgavg 53.8¢ | $403.77 | $299.05 | -$27.34 | 58% 47061-33943 (81004) |
GO GoalLineGhost | IF Elfsborgavg 49.7¢ | $151.8 | $152.83 | +$1.03 | 50% 28611-28439 (57050) |
SE sentrio<$100 | IF Elfsborgavg 52.3¢ | $35.52 | $34.37 | -$1.15 | 50% 26097-25756 (51853) |
Invested
$4,591.26
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$257.38
Record
51%
26324-24949 (51273)
Invested
$3,776.59
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$292.23
Record
50%
21367-21638 (43005)
VeryLucky888Invested
$403.77
Value
$299.05
PnL
-$27.34
Record
58%
47061-33943 (81004)
Invested
$151.8
Value
$152.83
PnL
+$1.03
Record
50%
28611-28439 (57050)
Invested
$35.52
Value
$34.37
PnL
-$1.15
Record
50%
26097-25756 (51853)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.