Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-09-06?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 51¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
-$367.37
58.6¢ → 50.5¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 51.6¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$42.26 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$62.39 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.2¢ | $1.1K | $734.27 | -$330.52 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26¢ | $296.66 | $564.8 | +$268.14 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 80.8¢ | $1.1K | $734.43 | -$321.03 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $11.39 | $11.28 | -$0.11 | 74% 2420-861 (3281) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $13.44 | $7.07 | -$6.37 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $1.8 | $2.97 | +$1.17 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $1.62 | $2.97 | +$1.35 | 56% 8920-7126 (16046) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $2.6 | $2.47 | -$0.12 | 55% 1857-1549 (3406) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,071.05
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$42.26
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,361.46
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$62.39
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,055.46
Value
$734.43
PnL
-$321.03
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$11.39
Value
$11.28
PnL
-$0.11
Record
74%
2420-861 (3281)
Invested
$13.44
Value
$7.07
PnL
-$6.37
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$1.17
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Invested
$1.62
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$1.35
Record
56%
8920-7126 (16046)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.47
PnL
-$0.12
Record
55%
1857-1549 (3406)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.