Spread: BK Hacken (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold AIK (60%) · AIK at 65¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
AIK
5
AIK 60%
$4.0K
-$2.99
65.1¢ → 64.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAIK at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on AIK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | AIKavg 65.1¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$31.62 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | BK Hackenavg 36¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | -$36.38 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
 VeryLucky888 | AIKavg 65¢ | $195 | $196.5 | +$1.5 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | AIKavg 65¢ | $10 | $10.07 | +$0.08 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | BK Hackenavg 33¢ | $3.09 | $3.23 | +$0.19 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$2,368.53
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$31.62
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$1,331.9
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$36.38
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
VeryLucky888Invested
$195
Value
$196.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.07
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$3.09
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.