FC Sion vs. FC Thun: O/U 4.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$113.69
34.7¢ → 50¢
+44% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 34.7¢ | $1.0K | $929.67 | -$109.11 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 56.7¢ | $97.3 | $112.9 | +$15.6 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56.7¢ | $63.74 | $77.56 | +$13.82 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 29.4¢ | $33.56 | $35.34 | +$1.78 | |
DA dashattacker<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $21.75 | $17.25 | -$4.5 | 73% 2898-1088 (3986) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $9.33 | $9.2 | -$0.13 | 74% 2421-862 (3283) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $1.55 | +$0.05 | 59% 31860-22491 (54351) |
RN1Invested
$1,038.78
Value
$929.67
PnL
-$109.11
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$97.3
Value
$112.9
PnL
+$15.6
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.75
Value
$17.25
PnL
-$4.5
Record
73%
2898-1088 (3986)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.33
Value
$9.2
PnL
-$0.13
Record
74%
2421-862 (3283)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
31860-22491 (54351)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.