FC Luzern vs. FC Sion: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 83¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$5.7K
-$138.22
74.9¢ → 83¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 82.2¢ | $3.0K | $2.8K | -$192.94 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 74.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$122.56 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40¢ | $583.6 | $576.31 | -$7.29 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 74.1¢ | $628.78 | $513.51 | -$115.27 | |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 60¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$8.76 | 72% 2430-936 (3366) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 28.4¢ | $438.39 | $553.03 | +$114.64 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 24.2¢ | $166.85 | $117.09 | -$49.76 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 71.5¢ | $51.14 | $38.37 | -$12.81 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $23.76 | $18.36 | -$5.4 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $1.62 | $1.74 | +$0.12 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $28 | $0.52 | -$0.83 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
Invested
$3,015.62
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$192.94
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,212.38
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$122.56
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,051
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$8.76
Record
72%
2430-936 (3366)
Invested
$438.39
Value
$553.03
PnL
+$114.64
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$166.85
Value
$117.09
PnL
-$49.76
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$51.14
Value
$38.37
PnL
-$12.81
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$23.76
Value
$18.36
PnL
-$5.4
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.62
Value
$1.74
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$28
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$0.83
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.