FC Luzern vs. FC Sion: 1st Half O/U 0.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$25.74

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,001

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Under2 traders

Total Value$502.49

Total Shares2,956

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 22¢	$669.3	$2.5K	+$1.8K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 78¢	$2.3K	$500.03	$-1.8K	72% 2430-936 (3366)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$9.7	$16	+$6.3	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 34¢	$4.93	$2.47	-$2.46	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$669.3

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,294.25

Value

$500.03

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

72%

2430-936 (3366)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.7

Value

$16

PnL

+$6.3

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$4.93

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$2.46

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.