FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Zeleznicar Pancevo: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 54¢ · $774 held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$773.57
$24.63
66.8¢ → 54¢
-19% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
40h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 72¢ | $338 | $253.5 | -$84.5 | 50% 27765-27630 (55395) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 28¢ | $145.54 | $239.1 | +$93.56 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
LR lryyy | Overavg 56.7¢ | $136.66 | $130.09 | -$6.58 | 47% 9222-10346 (19568) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR | Underavg 44.6¢ | $101.74 | $104.88 | +$3.14 | 83% 81-17 (98) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $27 | $46 | +$19 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
Invested
$338
Value
$253.5
PnL
-$84.5
Record
50%
27765-27630 (55395)
Invested
$145.54
Value
$239.1
PnL
+$93.56
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$136.66
Value
$130.09
PnL
-$6.58
Record
47%
9222-10346 (19568)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTRInvested
$101.74
Value
$104.88
PnL
+$3.14
Record
83%
81-17 (98)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$27
Value
$46
PnL
+$19
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.