Will FK Radnicki Nis win on 2026-11-02?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 2

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$368.5

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 98¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,932

Combined PnL+$202.37

Yes7 traders

Total Value$424.33

Total Shares20,120

Combined PnL-$570.88

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 95.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$28.84	61% 907-592 (1499)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76.6¢	$586.62	$607.23	+$20.28	50% 27494-27393 (54887)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.7¢	$290.54	$380.33	+$88.68	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
DI dips.	Noavg 97¢	$367.63	$371.61	+$3.98	47% 10232-11605 (21837)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$518.01	$275.21	-$238.7	53% 22161-19289 (41450)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 77¢	$154	$196.1	+$41.5	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Noavg 95.9¢	$161.7	$165.3	+$3.6	82% 77-17 (94)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 78¢	$56.55	$71.09	+$14.32	55% 1295-1076 (2371)
LR lryyyCTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$111.11	$46.92	-$97.84	47% 9121-10246 (19367)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$55.03	$41.33	-$12.3	57% 12069-9156 (21225)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Yesavg 7.4¢	$114.35	$30.19	-$77.47	48% 5221-5727 (10948)
Rex416<$100	Noavg 95¢	$24.9	$26.08	+$1.18	57% 2574-1959 (4533)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$59.81	$23.35	-$32.27	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$109.21	$6.39	-$102.82	26% 281-810 (1091)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$10.56	$0.94	-$9.48	51% 6261-6015 (12276)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$1,038.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.84

Record

61%

907-592 (1499)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$586.62

Value

$607.23

PnL

+$20.28

Record

50%

27494-27393 (54887)

Flaznorp

Invested

$290.54

Value

$380.33

PnL

+$88.68

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

dips.

Invested

$367.63

Value

$371.61

PnL

+$3.98

Record

47%

10232-11605 (21837)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$518.01

Value

$275.21

PnL

-$238.7

Record

53%

22161-19289 (41450)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$154

Value

$196.1

PnL

+$41.5

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Invested

$161.7

Value

$165.3

PnL

+$3.6

Record

82%

77-17 (94)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$56.55

Value

$71.09

PnL

+$14.32

Record

55%

1295-1076 (2371)

lryyyCTR

Yes

Invested

$111.11

Value

$46.92

PnL

-$97.84

Record

47%

9121-10246 (19367)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.03

Value

$41.33

PnL

-$12.3

Record

57%

12069-9156 (21225)

SlickRick123CTR

Yes

Invested

$114.35

Value

$30.19

PnL

-$77.47

Record

48%

5221-5727 (10948)

Rex416<$100

Invested

$24.9

Value

$26.08

PnL

+$1.18

Record

57%

2574-1959 (4533)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.81

Value

$23.35

PnL

-$32.27

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR

Yes

Invested

$109.21

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$102.82

Record

26%

281-810 (1091)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.56

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$9.48

Record

51%

6261-6015 (12276)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.