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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16?
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
Total Value
$846.83
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x223e81ff...7c21cb
Slug
spx-up-or-down-on-october-16-2026