Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 97¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 5

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$95.31

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 97.3¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,198

Combined PnL+$0.07

Yes8 traders

Total Value$31.04

Total Shares5,137

Combined PnL-$95.38

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.7¢	$6.6K	$3.5K	-$23.5	60% 11480-7595 (19075)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96.7¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$16.8	54% 22028-19125 (41153)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 98.1¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$2.11	43% 3085-4124 (7209)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$290.49	$281.39	-$5.6	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
└ No leg	Noavg 91.7¢	$203.05	$215.43	+$12.37
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.5¢	$85.68	$65.96	-$17.98
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$92.5	$99.9	+$7	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$52.14	$54.38	+$2.24	60% 905-591 (1496)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 98.4¢	$229.91	$20.27	-$0.37	52% 6119-5644 (11763)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$37.66	$15.99	-$21.88	45% 13592-16514 (30106)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$502	$6.53	-$14.12	50% 6059-6159 (12218)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$91.48	$4.71	-$33.17	58% 44437-32355 (76792)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$19.1	$2.67	-$16.43	50% 249-252 (501)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$6.2	$0.97	-$5.22	17% 4179-19735 (23914)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2.13	$0.07	-$2.06	50% 20113-20444 (40557)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$1.55	$0.06	-$1.49	51% 7310-7059 (14369)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.06	$0.05	-$1.01	48% 6134-6542 (12676)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$6,555.3

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$23.5

Record

60%

11480-7595 (19075)

cigarettes

Invested

$3,033.34

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$16.8

Record

54%

22028-19125 (41153)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,813.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$2.11

Record

43%

3085-4124 (7209)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$290.49

Value

$281.39

PnL

-$5.6

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

Both legs:

No$203.0591.7¢+$12.37

Yes$85.683.5¢-$17.98

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$92.5

Value

$99.9

PnL

+$7

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Invested

$52.14

Value

$54.38

PnL

+$2.24

Record

60%

905-591 (1496)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$229.91

Value

$20.27

PnL

-$0.37

Record

52%

6119-5644 (11763)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.66

Value

$15.99

PnL

-$21.88

Record

45%

13592-16514 (30106)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$502

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$14.12

Record

50%

6059-6159 (12218)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.48

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$33.17

Record

58%

44437-32355 (76792)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.1

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$16.43

Record

50%

249-252 (501)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$5.22

Record

17%

4179-19735 (23914)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.06

Record

50%

20113-20444 (40557)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.49

Record

51%

7310-7059 (14369)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.01

Record

48%

6134-6542 (12676)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.